Canadian Dollar Outperforms on North American Jobs Beat


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The U.S. and Canada both printed above-consensus labour market figures.

This data beat allowed the big Dollar and Canadian Dollar to top the G10 performance board, giving the two currencies some momentum into the weekend.

To be sure, the Canadian Dollar has been the pick of the pair for the past two weeks, and news that Canada added 8.8K jobs in May makes its star shine a little brighter.

8.8K doesn't sound like much, but we must consider that the consensus looked for Canada to lose 15K jobs during the month, a positive surprise that sends a message to markets that the country is holding its own.

The unemployment rate is at 7%, up from 6.9%, but this is in line with expectations.

The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is lower by 0.20% on the day, the Euro-Canadian Dollar is down by a similar margin at 1.56. Against the U.S. Dollar, the CAD is flat at 1.3677.

A flat USD/CAD is consistent with U.S. Dollar outperformance, given the consensus-beating non-farm payroll report south of the border which was released alongside the Canadian print.

Resilience in the U.S.A. will help the closely aligned Canadian economy, which is giving the Canadian Dollar an extra hand; as the G10 scoreboard shows, the CAD is outperforming, alongside the USD:



"Overall, data is consistent with our view that labour market is softening but not collapsing. We expect trade disruptions will keep acting as headwinds, but think further deterioration will be contained," says Claire Fan, Senior Economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

The resilience in the headline numbers papered over some cracks in the figure with those industries exposed to trade, such as manufacturing and transportation & warehousing, showing weakness.

Employment numbers come a day after Canadian trade figures showed a slump in exports and an explosion in the country's trade deficit, which we think points to the potential for longer-term headwinds to the Canadian Dollar unless it corrects itself in the coming months.

Economist Andrew Grantham at CIBC says these data confirm the economy isn't living up to its long-run potential, and to expect that the gradual rise in joblessness will continue into the second half of the year.

He thinks some positive developments regarding U.S. tariffs and some further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada are required to help stabilise conditions before year-end.


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