- CAD benefiting from higher oil prices
- GBP/CAD short-term downtrend intact
- Iranian threats on Strait of Hormuz keeps markets on edge
Above: Brent crude oil prices have spiked, helping CAD in the process.
The Canadian Dollar is bid against the Pound, helped by higher oil prices.
We're leaving intact an annotation that has sat on GBP/CAD's Week Ahead Forecast chart for some three weeks now.
As can be seen, the annotation has proven very accurate, and we see no reason to ditch it now.
The rough sketch tells a story of an exchange rate that has been losing altitude for some time, and further losses are likely.
To be clear, we're not saying the bigger, multi-year uptrend is over; rather, that it is on an extended break.
With this in mind, a retreat to 1.83 can't be ruled out.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) dropped sharply on Friday when conflict broke out in the Middle East, prompting oil prices to surge.
Analysts say this rise in oil prices has proven particularly beneficial to the Canadian Dollar, which is showing itself to be sensitive to oil again. Canada is a major exporter of the commodity, and it makes sense that higher import earnings will bolster the domestic currency.
"The CAD and NOK are faring better, understandably, given their relationship to oil prices," says Shaun Osboren, FX Strategist at Scotiabank.
Oil is softer on Monday, but importantly, hold onto most of Friday's surge, which is limiting the ability of GBP/CAD to recover.
A key risk to oil prices and markets more broadly is whether Iran escalates the conflict by blockading the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which oil flows from the Middle East to European and U.S. markets.
Sardar Esmaeil Kowsari, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and member of Iran’s parliament, told domestic media on Saturday that closing the Strait was "under consideration".
Over the years, Iran has amassed an arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as kamikaze drones, and a range of maritime capabilities, including naval mines, which analysts say are well-suited to the task of shutting down the narrow waterway that links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
The nation's forces regularly run drills, involving dozens of small boats, to demonstrate their ability to close off the Strait.
Iran knows this would be a significant escalation that risks bringing the U.S. and its allies into the conflict, and will therefore likely refrain from actually attacking shipping, which is why oil is falling again.
However, the message is clearly intent on maintaining some geopolitical premium in oil, which for now, is helping the CAD.