Canadian Dollar in Blowout Jobs Surprise


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The Canadian dollar was the standout in pre-weekend trade after domestic employment figures sailed past expectations.

The market thought we would get a -2.5K figure for October, but Canada's economy added 66.6K jobs, up from 60.4K in September.

"Details were also broadly positive with job growth concentrated in the private sector, improvement in the most trade-exposed manufacturing and transportation sectors, wage growth accelerating, and the labour force participation rate rising," says Nathan Janzen, Assistant Chief Economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

So that's two solid months of gains that will convince the Bank of Canada there is no need to lower the base rate any further.

Sensing this, traders are bolstering Canadian bond yields, and this is aiding the currency higher.

"We doubt the BOC slashes the policy rate below the lower end of its estimated neutral range of 2.25% to 3.25%, which limits CAD downside," says Elias Haddad, Global Head of Markets Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Underlying inflation is running hot."

The pound to Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is trading 0.28% lower on the day at 1.8496. The U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar conversion rate is 0.26% lower at 1.4079.

The Bank of Canada will pay close attention to wage growth dynamics, which unexpectedly accelerated to 4.0% y/y for permanent employees (from 3.6% in September) and to 3.5% for all employees (from 3.3% in September).

That's a development that economists say is consistent with increasing risks that inflation rises above the BoC's target.

"Today's data are supportive of the Bank of Canada's judgement that interest rates are now low enough to stimulate the economy, and as a result we continue to forecast no more rate cuts from here," says Andrew Grantham, economist at CIBC in Toronto.

"Bond yields and the Canadian dollar rose following today's release as markets lowered the probability of further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada," he says.


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