File image of Mark Carney © European Central Bank, reproduced under CC licensing.
The Canadian dollar may have seen its worst days, and investors should start positioning for a rebound, according to Société Générale strategist Olivier Korber.
"The worst CAD days might be behind us," he says in a new strategy note.
He thinks USD/CAD put options are the way to play a strengthening in CAD, amidst expectations for improved political conditions in Canada and falling U.S. yields.
"Despite trade fears and the ongoing retaliatory escalation, USD/CAD is not breaking above 1.45, and short CAD positioning is showing signs of erosion in both futures and options," Korber wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
The call comes amidst a fresh bout of CAD weakness following fresh threats from the White House.
USD/CAD is half a per cent higher on the day after President Donald Trump announced on social media that he will increase steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% and declare a "national emergency on electricity" until Canada removes its trade barriers on dairy and electricity.
The latest Trump threats make for a difficult task for Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who is preparing to take over as Canada’s Liberal Party leader, which would mean he assumes the office of Prime Minister.
However, the change of leadership in Canada could offer the chance for a reset, suggests Soc Gen.
"Carney’s election is an opportunity to engage in trade negotiations with the U.S. on a new footing ahead of the April 2 tariff deadline," Korber said.
A strong Liberal election result or signs of easing trade tensions could provide further CAD support.
Until recently, USD/CAD had been closely tracking relative yields, but U.S. yields are now falling, and the exchange rate has yet to adjust.
"With U.S. yields clearly heading south, USD/CAD should follow," Korber explained.
Positioning Shift in the FX Market also favour the trade as extreme short CAD positions in both futures and options markets are beginning to unwind.
"Trade fears have led to an excessive bearish skew in CAD options," said Korber, adding that USD/CAD puts are now attractively discounted.
He thinks now is a good time to position for a CAD recovery into the spring.
Risks to the view would U.S.-Canada trade relations deteriorating further.
However, strategists at Toronto Dominion Bank say now is not the time to bet on a Canadian Dollar rebound.
Jayati Bharadwaj, Global FX Strategist at TD says neither this week's looming Bank of Canada decision and tariff uncertainty is good for the CAD.
"We are bracing for a correction in the broad USD higher and remain long USDCAD in options," she says.