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Pound Sterling looks set to firm against the Euro this week, with market liquidity set to build and economic data making a return.
The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) retains a presence above the 1.20 support area, which confirms this as a near-term base that will likely provide support.
Technical signals are relatively neutral as we head into the first full trading week of 2025 that brings with it increased trading volumes and real economic data following the Christmas and New Year breaks.
GBP/EUR has been caught between 1.2016 at the bottom and 1.21 at the top since December 20, when trading volumes began to fade. This leaves a relatively static setup: the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is pointed sideways at 1.2060, which is close to the level of spot at the time of writing. It is also where the 21-day EMA is presently located.
The Relative Strength Index reflects this equilibrium at 51.42, leaving the near-term outlook relatively flat.
Directionally, there is no bias for the coming five days. However, stepping back to view the bigger picture reveals GBP/EUR is most likely now in a period of consolidation amidst an ongoing uptrend.
Above: GBP/EUR is distinctively netural heading into 2025's first full week of trade. However, the bigger picture setup favours gains.
The static setup is likely to be challenged by the data and increased market participation, and the next big directional move is more likely to be to the upside than the downside, in keeping with the broader trend.
A move to fresh 2024 highs in early 2025 would gel with fundamental forecasts from some major investment banks that point to the Pound-Euro exchange rate rising to as high as 1.25 in the coming year.
Major UK data is due for release next week, but until then, the market will be digesting Eurozone data releases and the key U.S. labour market report, due out on Friday.
In the Eurozone, the focus is on German inflation data for December, which will provide an important hint of where we can expect Eurozone data to be tomorrow.
Last week saw the Euro firm after Spanish inflation for December beat expectations, which, importantly, was also due to core inflation rising more than expected. We would expect downside risks to GBP/EUR if German data beats expectations.
Analysts expect Eurozone HICP inflation tomorrow to rise to 2.4% year-on-year in December from 2.2% in November.
However, analysts don't think this would be enough to upend expectations for further European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cuts, which can limit any EUR upside.
"Most importantly, we expect the monthly price increase in core inflation to once again be compatible with the 2% target when annualised. The data is thus expected to support the case for continued rate cuts by the ECB," says Magnus Poulsen, Assistant Analyst at Danske Bank.
Thursday sees the release of the ECB Economic Bulletin, which should indicate expectations for the region's economy to remain under pressure and consistent with the need for further interest rate cuts.
Global FX markets will be focussed on Friday's U.S. job report, which has the ability to create cross currents that will impact the GBP/EUR.
Analysts expect U.S. job gains to have remained elevated in December at 180k, registering only a modest slowdown from a 227k print in November.
Lead indicators have improved lately, confirming the U.S. economy's strong standing, which is consistent with ongoing U.S. Dollar strength.
Should this pressure EUR/USD, then GBP/EUR can remain supported into the weekend.