A potential Ukraine ceasefire is one of the positives underpinning EUR outperformance. Image: Photographer: Lukasz Kobus. European Union, 2025.
Strategists at Bank of America are buyers of the Euro as Germany reaches a "watershed moment" that will prove a "game changer".
Now is the time for "bullish EUR trades," says Athanasios Vamvakidis, FX Strategist at Bank of America.
The call comes after Germany said it would change its constitution to allow for more spending on defence and infrastructure, which economists say is long overdue.
German and European bond yields surged in response, prompting a break higher in key euro exchange rates.
The German debt brake has capped borrowing at 0.35% and acts as a severe form of fiscal austerity when the economy is struggling, as it is now. By significantly raising the cap and effectively removing the cap entirely for defence spending, Germany enters a new fiscal era.
"The announced German fiscal package is a watershed moment for EUR," Vamvakidis says.
Bank of America sees upside risks for the EUR from:
(1) more defence spending at the EU level (this week's EU summit may offer more clarity);
(2) more - not necessarily fiscal - EU reforms; and
(3) a potential Ukraine peace deal alongside lower energy prices
The German government wants defence spending exceeding 1% of GDP to be exempt from the debt brake constraints.
Changes will also allow for the creation of a €500BN infrastructure fund to revitalise the economy and modernise critical infrastructure. This initiative seeks to address economic stagnation and prepare Germany for future growth.
Based on expectations for Euro outperformance, Bank of America initiates a number of 'long' euro options trades, including in EUR/USD and EUR/CHF.
Elsewhere, investment banks have revised forecasts for the Euro, no longer seeing it falling to parity in 2025.
Prominent names include Goldman Sachs, MUFG Bank and TD Securities.
Goldman Sachs forecasts Euro-Dollar at 1.01 in six months, weaker than current levels, but stronger than its previous call for a fall to 0.97.
"Rising optimism over a ceasefire deal in Ukraine and a significant step up in government spending in Europe has also helped to provide more support for European currencies at the start of this year helping to dampen upside potential for the US dollar as we saw again yesterday when EUR/USD rose back above the 1.0500-level," says Lee Hardmam, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Bank Ltd.
"As a result, we have pulled our forecast for EUR/USD to drop back below parity," he adds.