Pound to Euro Pair Falls in Wake of Eurozone Inflation Surprise


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The Euro is firmer right across the board.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has fallen to 1.1718 from the day's open at 1.1755, thanks in part to news headline Eurozone inflation rose to 2.2% in April said Eurostat, beating expectations for 2.1%.

However, the clincher for markets was the rise in core inflation to 2.7% from 2.4%, easily sailing past expectations for 2.5%.

Core inflation is watched closely by the European Central Bank (ECB), which now might feel less inclined to speed up the pace at which it cuts interest rates, for fear of boosting inflation further.

"The EUR is stronger this morning on a combination of hopes for a trade deal with the U.S. and higher than consensus inflation," says Daragh Maher, Senior FX Strategist at HSBC. "The acceleration in core inflation to 2.7% from 2.4% will energise ECB hawks."

These inflation data did not limit the chances of a June rate cut at the ECB, but money market pricing indicates pricing for further rate cuts fell more broadly for the remainder of the year.

The ECB's data comes days ahead of the Bank of England's own interest rate decision, where there are growing odds that a more 'dovish' tune is sung.

What this means is that the Bank has enough ammunition to signal it intends to speed up the pace at which it cuts interest rates, as it can cite global trade tariffs and poor domestic economic data.

If the Bank chooses a more stimulatory path (interest rate cuts are stimulatory for the economy), and the ECB chooses a more restrictive one, then a divergence in policy opens up.

This divergence would favour the Euro over Pound Sterling and would spell weakness ahead for the GBP/EUR exchange rate.


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