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The New Zealand dollar might also be about to turn a corner.
New data suggests New Zealand's economy is starting to improve, lowering the odds of another interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
Fading odds of another rate reduction mechanically plug into a stronger Kiwi dollar.
"NZD is a G10 outperformer amid continued signs that the economy may be turning up faster than the RBNZ had expected," says Noah Buffam, a strategist at CIBC Capital Markets.
The New Zealand manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 from an upwardly revised 50.1, as New Zealand recovers from prior weakness.
Business NZ says the survey confirms emerging "signs of life" as four of the five sub-index values were in expansion during October, led by New Orders (54.9), which showed its highest level of expansion since August 2022.
"Together with other recent data, this suggests that growth is picking up, potentially above that forecast by the RBNZ. Consider that the September filled jobs reading came in strong, while the prior months was not revised to 0 or negative for the first time in 2025," says Buffam.
The RBNZ's Kiwi-GDP nowcast suggests growth of 0.6% in Q3, versus the RBNZ's official forecast of 0.3%.
"This suggests that current pricing for the RBNZ to cut by 38 bps more may be excessive," says Buffam.
If markets move to price out RBNZ rate cuts, the NZ Dollar can recover further.
Eyes now turn to the services PMI, due on November 16; if we get a similar uplift this story has further to run.
The New Zealand dollar has been a chronic underperformer for much of 2025, primarily because the domestic economy has been performing well below potential, requiring the RBNZ to slash interest rates.
If the economy is about to turn around, the NZD's periof of underperformance might soon come to an end.