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Our investment bank forecast survey for GBP/USD covering the next 12 months has landed.
The consensus of the world's leading investment banks still holds a positive slant for the pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD).
This is according to Pound Sterling Live's survey of over 30 individual investment bank forecasts for the pair, which aims to deliver credible figures for those looking to make GBP/USD money transfers in the coming months.
In the space of just a few months, median GBP/USD projections have climbed notably from around 1.30 in the mid-year survey, marking a sharp upgrade across all forecast horizons.
Those interested in seeing the results, as well as the point forecasts of the most systemically important investment banks, can get in touch with us here and request this exclusive guide.
"There is a louder debate about whether the USD has bottomed and is set to turn up. Our USD framework suggests another round of weakness is likely, albeit gradual. The thirst to believe in a strong USD is a tempting one, but it is not closing time on the bearish view yet," says HSBC's October forecast update.
The survey's results, if correct, means one thing for those with pound-to-dollar payment needs: the pound is now widely expected to deliver better value going forward.
For example, someone transferring £100,000, the difference between 1.30 and 1.38 equates to an extra $8,000; a material improvement just on timing alone.
The most accurate 3-month-ahead forecasters from the June survey were Westpac, Intesa Sanpaolo and Danske Bank.
All three see an uplift of approximately 300 pips from current levels by year-end.
The bullish forecast profile comes at a time of renewed U.S. dollar strength, driven by a combination of fading trade war fears, U.S. economic resilience and U.S. stock market excellence.
That outperformance can continue a while yet, however, analysts think the Federal Reserve stands ready to cut interest rates faster than the Bank of England in the coming one-year timeframe, which should bolster GBP/USD's prospects.
"Fed rate cuts that outpace foreign central banks should lead to further dollar depreciation in the coming quarters. However, we believe that once the Fed's easing cycle ends, the dollar will begin to rebound over the second half of 2026 and into 2027," says Wells Fargo in its October forecast update, released Thursday.
The Value of the Forecast Survey
Single forecasts are prone to error, but by harnessing the power of the crowd, we are able to arrive at reasonable FX forecasts for our clients to make rational FX decisions and projections.
We survey all the world’s leading investment banks and some of the most reputable independent forecasters in London and New York to derive a mean and media forecast over a three-, six-, nine- and 12-month horizon.
We also create a variance band by presenting the highest and lowest forecasts in the dataset.