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The contrarian signals are everywhere.
The Financial Times, the Telegraph and other media outlets are crowing warnings about a collapse in pound sterling at tomorrow's budget.
"Currency traders bet against sterling ahead of Budget" is the FT's headline. "Traders bet against sterling" says the Telegraph.
Hoping to capitalise on the headline-driven sentiment, part-time financial market commentators are also vocal:
"Traders are already betting against Sterling ahead of Budget day. There is a real prospect sterling could see the mother of all sell-offs," says Riz Malik, Director at R3 Wealth.
What we have here is perhaps the best contrarian signal you will get that the pound is going to rise.
Because when everyone publicly warns of a fall in sterling, the risk is often already priced in, and sometimes over-priced in.
This creates the conditions for a contrarian move higher, not lower.
Market trading veteran Brent Donnelly, currently of Spectra Markets, has gone so far as to create a contrarian trading signal based on over-ripe trades.
"The Economist has a verifiable contrarian track record. When an asset class, country, or market is on the cover, it signals an extreme has been hit with regard to narrative. Only when a narrative is fully baked and close to exhausted does it finally appear on the magazine’s cover," he explains.
"The past 12 months have provided stunning example after stunning example of this," he explains.
There's a good chance that this pre-budget focus on sterling is offering a similar contrarian indicator.
The pound has fallen steadily through 2025, with weakness accelerating the past two months as investors grew wary of the upcoming budget.
Sterling is heavily discounted, and it will likely require an absolute shambles on the government's behalf to generate the kind of surprise required to trigger further weakness in a heavily sold currency.
If the government simply delivers on the headlines it has floated in the media, there will be enough relief for traders to unwind negative bets on sterling.
"The bearish result is well flagged by this point. There is no real thesis for long GBP, but the bear trade feels well known and well-subscribed for now," says Donnelly.