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However, USD weakness would likely be short-lived.
The first U.S. government shutdown since 2018 looms, and this is tipped to weigh on the dollar.
"The Dollar can underperform into a U.S. Government shutdown," says Themistoklis Fiotakis, an analyst at Barclays.
The U.S. government will run out of money to fund its day-to-day running by the end of Tuesday unless Republican Party politicians can agree with opposition Democrats on a way forward on a spending bill.
According to U.S. Vice President JP Vance, the U.S. government is on track to shut down "because the Democrats won’t do the right thing".
President Donald Trump has meanwhile warned of a the mass firings of federal workers if government shutdown is not averted.
"The US dollar, which remains the global reserve currency, is vulnerable to shifts in confidence," says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. "Shutdowns are not the same as defaults, but they send a damaging signal about political dysfunction in the world's largest economy."
The Republicans control both chambers of Congress, but in the Senate they are short of the 60 votes they need to pass a spending bill.
"The spectre of another government shutdown looms large yet again this week, with 1 October the so-called T=0 date. We have shown before that the dollar tends to underperform into such episodes, before it recovers once the funding dispute is resolved," says Fiotakis.
How does a shutdown impact the dollar? Fiotakis explains that the main channel of transmission to such an outcome is elevated risks of economic underperformance, as a shutdown could require a certain amount of fiscal tightening to be resolved.
Should the dollar perform as expected into this shutdown, then the pound to dollar exchange rate can build on its recent recovery, which has seen it rise from 1.3323 to 1.3437, and test the nine-day exponential moving average at 1.35.
Should the shutdown prove short lived, then the dollar can recover in short order, with history confirming the damage to the currency being temporary.
USD weakness could therefore offer a short-term tactical opportunity for buyers to take advantage of.